Tuesday A/V (Friday Edition): The Marvelously Inappropriate Miss Piggy Sums It All Up

I never thought Miss Piggy would deliver what would amount to my new, inappropriate theme song in life, but alas, she has. And I treasure it enough to share with you all.

Boys - this one is for you (especially Joe Clarke, whose face I can see right now as he watches this). The audio is absolutely NSFW, but it is required viewing.

Enjoy, and take her advice.

(p.s. - I also never thought Loretta Swit would make a cameo in my new inappropriate theme song in life either...but alas, these are the times we live in.)

Is Brazil Finally Arriving?

There has been such a deluge of foreshadowing and signs of real economic improvement in Brazil for so many months now. But the culmination of a series of events which climaxed on April 30th actually provoked surprise here and abroad about the strides Brazil has made, and the opportunities now in its grasp.

It all emerged from the general climate of economic improvement across most indicators in Brazil. Inflation, once a rival of the old military dictatorship in terms of terrorizing the public, has been tamed. Credit is expanding, from the emergence of a nascent consumer mortgage market to the growth of microcredit even in the poorest communities. Domestic consumer spending is growing, as are wages. Poverty is easing. And for the first time (as featured on the cover of Veja magazine earlier in April), the middle class is now the largest socio-economic segment of Brazilian economy. No one alive can remember when, or if, that has happened before.

Brazil can no longer be credibly called a "poor country."

The big drama, however, started with events across the River Plate in Buenos Aires. This longtime rival of Brazil in all matters of prestige, football and economics has been teetering on the verge of a new economic and political crisis. President Cristina Kirchner, who only last October romped to a huge election victory, has taken a swandive of George W. Bush proportions in approval ratings. She's shown herself to be cut from the same incompetent Peronist cloth as her husband and predecessor, pursuing an increasingly bewildering set of economic policies that could turn an impressive economic expansion into a disastrous new collapse in a matter of months.

In the shadow of Argentina's sinking fortunes, shackled to the stereotypical South American political blunders of the past, Brazil's new shine seems all the more modern and brilliant. And on Friday, April 25th, the worm turned.

Argentine Economy Minister Martín Lousteau, a 38 year-old moptop that the Kirchners thought they could easily control, resigned. He'd proven to be too sensible, too insistent and too alarmed by the madness of the government's policies around spiraling inflation and disappearing investors. This sent markets in Buenos Aires into a tailspin of despair. Argentina was already worn out from a violent political showdown between Cristina and the farming sector over massive increases in export taxes to feed the government's unnecessarily swelling budget. Middle-class protesters had returned to the streets of the capital to bang pots and pans, side with the farmers and denounce the government - and they'd been met with club-swinging thugs of the Kirchner's Peronist machine in the Plaza de Mayo. With Lousteau's abrupt resignation, after arguing for an anti-inflation plan that curtailed government spending that was rejected by the Kirchners, all hope seemed to be lost for Argentina.

And dollars began to disappear in Argentina. Investors fled in all directions, and citizens of the capital made a run on banks to buy the greenback in such numbers that most of Buenos Aires' banks ran out of the currency by the end of the day.

Brazil, meanwhile, was in the midst of yet another discovery of oil reserves in its off-shore territory. The only question was how big it was. But it seemed clear that the master of world biofuels would now likely become an oil exporter of the first degree in the coming decade. The Bovespa stock market was rocketing.

Finally, on April 30th, Argentina got a roundhouse punch to the jaw, and Brazil was suddenly the winner of one of the most important beauty contests in the world economy. All on the same day.

In the morning, a U.S. federal judge ruled that several billion dollars in Argentine bonds held abroad would be frozen, and the country would be forced to open its public account books to scrutiny in court, in a suit arising from its last economic meltdown in 2001. This level of scrutiny is something the Kirchners have adamantly refused from the IMF and other organizations in relation to the massive default in the previous crisis. To refuse it now to this court would amount to a default of a legal kind, which could open the country to even more embargoes and sanctions until it settles its outstanding debt in default of some US$25 billion, at a time when it can't even handle the debt it has emitted since. Plus, the farmers may return to the barricades any day now, and average Argentines are frightened about the future.

But in the late afternoon, on the eve of the May 1 holiday, Standard & Poor's shocked the financial markets and granted investment grade status to Brazil, long before it was expected. It is the first time in history Brazil has earned this rating, and Estado de São Paulo estimates it will result in US$3 trillion in new investment pouring into the country. That's three times the current size of Brazil's entire GDP. The contrast with the deepening doldrums next door could not have been more electric.

This big stew of news, emotion, pride and schadenfreude hasn't really sunk in yet here. When you've never tasted the best wine, how can you tell how good it is on the first sip? Most Brazilians alive today are from generations that either survived the worst of hyperinflation, military governments and grinding poverty, or are their children and were raised with a sense of deep cynicism rather than hope. It's hard to blame them. But this is a big country, full of many different kinds of people. There is also a nucleus of dogged, determined entrepreneurs and optimists here. They are clever, educated, proud and ready to compete. And many Brazilians who'd gone abroad -- legally or otherwise -- are coming home, retreating from the downturn in the U.S. economy, or the growing restrictions on their movements there or in Europe. They are not only finding a better situation here than when they left, but they are bringing back a wealth of real-world experience, language skills, and a realization that the world is bigger than they'd thought, and they can handle it.

I can feel it changing. My maid talks about shopping. The doormen wear good shoes and jackets. Stores are opening all over the place, and there still seems to not be enough of them to satisfy the crowds of people in them. Apartment buildings are going up at a rate of one every day, according to today's O Globo. The number of people knocking on car windows at stoplights, either to beg or to sell small things, is shrinking. And the yields I'm seeing on basic, money market investments linked to my very basic consumer bank account are astounding. One higher-risk fund has already produced a 20% yield since January, while the lowest-risk fund is posting 2% a month. It is unmistakable what is happening here.

So, while the distribution of wealth in this country is still among the worst in the world, it seems that market economics, matched with fairly sound monetary policies, may finally have a chance to do its work in correcting it. No heavy-handed, politically-tainted intervention by a Chavista/Peronist regime. Just real development. The challenge now is whether the Brazilian government realizes they must pass a package of tax reforms to ensure the flood of new investment dollars coming in actually spread across the economy more cleanly, and don't end up in the same pockets of the same mega-rich few they always did before. We'll see.

The UA Upgrade Game

I'm heading back to Washington on Sunday night for a four-day business trip, and the usual tension is rising. Not about the work involved, or the change in climate. It's about the ever elusive upgrade.

I have stuck with United Airlines through thick and thin over the years. When I was a frequent traveler to Europe in the 1990s, I was an e-fare fanatic, grabbing at every cut-rate fare to Amsterdam or Brussels I could manage, and never afraid to fly in coach on their 767s or 777s. When my focus switched to Brazil in 1998, I stayed with UA and built up half a million miles in the process. For a short time, the upgrade on those long, brutal flights was almost a no-brainer.

But as anyone who flies the GRU-IAD routes knows, times have changed radically.

The old, withering 767s that United persistently flies on these routes are miserable to travel in. Even in business class, the seats are often broken in some way or the video screens, the reading lights or the meal trays are not working right. At least half the time, they get my special meal requests wrong. United is renovating its premium cabins on international flights - so I hear - but it's clear that the planes on the GRU routes are going to be the last ones in service. And the seats in economy class - no matter where you sit - are a notch above Aeroflot on those old planes. The flights are almost always packed full.

When I was in my 20s, it wasn't such a sacrifice to lose a night's sleep on an overnight flight. At 40, it has consequences. And not just esthetic ones. Given the level of energy I need on a business trip, and the amount of time it takes to regain when lost, I dread those long nights of sitting up in a cramped, uncomfortable seat and cursing myself for even agreeing to travel at all. With the upgrade to business, even on the putrid 767s of United Airlines, there is at least a hope of some sleep. Even four hours would be enough to get through the first day and catch a great night's sleep the night after, at my destination.

So, despite my copious miles and my elite status with United, I still am pushed onto wait lists for upgrades. And that always means I'll be left wondering until the very last minute of the boarding process whether I'll get it or not. Given how bad business class has become on United, every time trips like this are approaching I wonder why I bother with this crummy airline.

I know the whole airline industry is dealing with some very tough issues these days, and several companies are likely to disappear in the next year or two through bankruptcies or mergers. But there is definitely also something wrong with United Airlines' priorities. I'm a business traveler who has increasingly wide choices for flights from Brazil to the United States. I've sampled American Airlines a couple of times now on my business trips to Jamaica, and without any elite status I have managed to score upgrades to business class on their GRU-MIA and GRU-JFK flights with little effort. And their 777s have a business class that is sheer heaven compared to United. They have flat-bed seats in their big biz cabin -- a lot of them -- and have done away with First altogether. (Gee, I wonder why the upgrades are so much easier to get...) The crew is friendly and helpful, and the food isn't half bad. They have entertainment on demand, and you don't freeze to death in the window seats. In contrast, United's clanky old 767s still have an antiquated, tiny First Class cabin with 10 seats that don't lie flat, and where one seat is perpetually reserved for pilot rest. Could those seats possibly be worth the many thousands charged for them? How many extra business seats could they fit in if they followed American's lead? And the crews working the GRU flights are usually in their 50s or older, which means they have much less energy or desire to tend to you beyond the minimal requirement.

Yes, United is getting with the program and putting flat-bed seats in all their business cabins, but the amount of time it's taking for the Brazil flights to be changed over is just a reflection of how much contempt it seems that United has for its business customers on those routes. We've always, it seems, gotten the worst of United's lot in every way for many years now. For the first couple years, it was annoying. Now it's just galling.

I've made the decision that it's not worth it anymore. I'm scaling back travel for the next year anyway, sticking closer to home in most respects and only anticipating a couple of new trips to Jamaica and that's it. I won't be flying United to Kingston. So why should I fly United at all anymore?

So we'll see what goes down Sunday night.

Much to Say, Not Much Time to Say It

Sometimes I feel like I'm bubbling over with stuff to write about. Whether it's a series of experiences here or abroad that add to the overall thrust of this blog, or whether I'm at a sort of crossroads and I need advice, I'm never at a loss for content.

But my problem is that I barely have time to live my life, much less write about it coherently.

Ironically, I have about ten minutes to write this entry about why I have no time to write entries, because it's 12:29pm, and I have a 1:30pm appointment on Avenida Paulista. I have been up since 7:30am working for clients, as well as on pending marketing efforts, and I'm still in pajamas. The phone has been ringing, and I had to run Clancy down to the dog-taxi waiting outside to take him to daycare. I just had to stop this entry to answer three different emails on pending client items, each from a different country. It's now 12:32pm.

Plus, I'm in a marriage that is loving, but needs constant attention. I'm also running an international business, which requires a lot of thankless administrative work on two continents, and in two separate tax jurisdictions. I have bills to pay, invoices to collect on, and a moving target of various unreliable players in the larger logistical puzzle of my life. That means a combination of pressure, cajoling, charming, threatening and cultivating of different people, with different background, in different cultures, for a wide variety of needs I have -- business or personal.

So, life for me isn't simply a rat race, or a dreary routine. It's a sprawling, humming enterprise that is not for any but the fleet of foot, and fingers. I'm also reminded that time is not only a limited resource, it's a diminishing one. I not only turned 40 recently, but like my mother and many of my relatives on her side of the family at this age, the first symptoms of arthritis are beginning to emerge in me. Naturally, they are showing up in my fingers -- the part of this corpus that my whole career hangs on. Not to mention this blog.

I'm circumspect of course, but I'm also trying to be honest with you. I'm up against the clock in more ways than one, and it's not for lack of wanting to blog that my entries are getting thinner in quantity. Believe me. I'm boiling over with stuff. It's just bottlenecked -- and often that means it runs its course in life terms, pre-empting that short window of creative ripeness when it's most satisfying to write about, and most interesting to read.

It's 12:41. I'm late.